CoViD 19: A Greater Threat than the Flu
I’ll keep this short and to the point. Many are still saying that the flu is a greater threat (sometimes adding “currently” and sometimes adding “in the U.S.” or “in our state”) than the coronavirus now known as Covid 19 (for COronaVIrus Disease 2019). Their point of view is either intentional disinformation meant to calm people down or ignorant misinformation, which will slow you down in the response required to save the lives of those you love. I don’t want you to panic, but I do want you to prepare if you haven’t already. Just today I heard someone on the radio say that driving home from the airport is a greater threat than Covid 19. Such ignorance is dangerous and the reason for this post.
Let’s do the math—according to current statistics from the CDC, the flu has been estimated to have about a 0.1% mortality rate. In other words, if my math is right, 1 in 1,000 cases of the flu ends in death. Current estimates of Covid 19 suggest it has at least a 3% (update 3/19/20: current global estimates are closer to 4%) mortality rate. That’s at least 3 persons out of every 100 who get it will die (update: now about 4 in 100). Doesn’t sound too bad to you? Let’s break that down even further. If, as some reports suggest, there are 82,000+ confirmed cases and 2800+ fatalities, dividing 82,000 by 2800 gives us about 1 in 29 infections resulting in death (currently, it is estimated that about 1 in 24 or 25 will die). I don’t know the statistics for fatalities involving those who drive home from the airport, but I think it’s safe to say that one out of every 29 people who attempt it are not dying.
Of course, there are factors to be considered here—not all cases are likely known since many exhibit mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. So the mortality rate may not be as high as the numbers suggest, but at any rate, the numbers are quite high, and it isn’t clear in every case how transmission occurs. Some cases suggest that people with no symptoms are capable of infecting others, while some sources claim it can take up to 3 weeks for symptoms to appear, if they do. Sure, it is claimed that 80% of cases will be mild, but make no mistake, this could alter our world. The statistics do not lie—2 out of every 10 people who get the disease will develop a severe illness, while as many as one in thirty could die. Let’s consider that a moment in other terms: If everyone in your neighborhood gets the flu, someone might die. Maybe. If everyone in your neighborhood gets Covid 19, several people will probably die. Please, take this seriously. Please prepare. Please pray—for forgiveness and protection, for those who are suffering already, who have lost loved ones, and for those who are in the path of this bug.
Be like Nehemiah, who prayed AND posted a watch. Remember, when he sent the people out to rebuild the walls, although they went for the Lord, they also went to work with swords at their sides. Do and pray. Trust and obey God. So, besides prayer, what should we focus on as Christians? You want to help others when you can, but to do that, you have to be secure first. Look to your house and your provisions. Here are some simple suggestions for how to get ready. Disclaimer: I am not a medical professional, but I did work as an autopsy technician who was exposed to many things. My advice is only common sense and based upon current reports coming from medical sources.
Respirators. Consider getting a respirator rather than just a mask. Surgical masks do little to protect you and are actually to help keep you from infecting others. A respirator with an appropriate filter should help to keep exposure to a minimum.
Goggles or other eye protection. Consider covering your eyes so particles in the air do not come into contact with the surface of your eyes. Face shields and safety glasses may not be enough. Current evidence suggests that this virus may be transmitted through the air, and not just in vapor from sneezes and coughs.
Exposure. You will not always be able to tell you are being exposed to the virus because not everyone will exhibit symptoms—you must manage your own personal exposure protocols. Nobody is going to hold you by the hand. You must take charge of your own health and well-being. So, here goes—keep your hands away from your face. This more than anything will help keep you and your loved ones alive. If you must touch your face, wash your hands before and after. Keep hand sanitizer with an alcohol base with you at all times. Use it whenever you go between personal and public spaces. Consider every door a barrier across which you should do everything in your power to prevent carrying any illness-causing agent. Whenever you enter or exit through a door, whether your home, car, or place of work, or at the store, use hand sanitizer to clean up and prevent transmission of viral agents. Limit travel to necessities. Stay away from doctors and hospitals unless you genuinely need them as they will be places likely to have higher exposure rates. If you’re really sick, by all means go. If you just have a routine exam, reschedule it for another time when you see how things go. Wait and see approach will help here, unless you’re seriously ill, then you must not wait.
Maintenance. If you are like most people, your body has been divinely gifted with the power of healing and will do a lot of the work for you if you help/let it. First, remove any obstacle to health and healing. If you have a splinter remove it. If you are a drunkard, cast aside strong drink. If you are a glutton, consider becoming a vegan. If you are diabetic, get it under control now. Unfortunately, for others, some have a broken body because of the Fall, which cause cannot be removed by humanity. God alone may heal such souls. Everyone else has choices to make. Second, supply your body with the things it needs: oxygen first, then proper lighting, then essential nutrients, which come from having a variety of healthy foods prepared in healthy ways. Be as fit as possible. A fit body is a healthy body. A healthy body is a strong body. A strong body is better able to fight what is coming. And while sin does not have to be a factor in someone’s illness, it certainly can be. If you are doing something you shouldn’t, stop it now. Turn to God and seek His forgiveness before it’s too late.
Damage Control. If you get sick, get plenty of liquids, plenty of rest, and plenty of whatever is good for you. DO NOT GO OUT unless absolutely necessary. Learn your body. Listen to it. It can tell you when you should act if you don’t second guess it. The window for responding to this will not be as large as the window for standard flu. Once this starts turning really bad, you must not delay in seeking help. It won’t be like anything you’ve had before. If you feel like you might have a cold or flu, it could be Covid 19. Do not expose others needlessly. Do not go to work with it.
Woke the -bleep- up. You cannot go with the herd on this. You cannot be like sheep. Don’t trust that if nobody else takes it seriously that you should do the same. Just because everyone else is going to school and work, don’t assume that you should. Do what you have to do to survive, whether that’s going to work and school as you should in normal circumstances or hiding out until things blow over. Only, this thing might not blow over, and it might keep coming back. Just try not to get sick with it when it’s at its peak because it will be extremely difficult to get proper healthcare if the hospitals and medical centers are overflowing and the doctors and nurses themselves are all sick. Having a close relationship with God will dramatically lessen your risks because He can tell you what you should and shouldn’t do and when you should or shouldn’t do it. The Holy Spirit will speak to all those who care to listen—and it’s likely the Spirit has spoken to you already if you can only hear it. For this, you must humble yourself and cast aside everything, including every vice, that hinders. Shut up and listen for once. Ask God what He thinks rather than assuming you already know.
Stock your supply closet now if you haven’t already. Get plenty of water for everyone in your household. Bottled water should last a long time if stored properly. Get staples to last for months if necessary. Get dry rice and beans. Get canned goods. Get dehydrated foods. Get nuts. Get things that will last and feed your family if the power goes out and stays out for two weeks or more. And, speaking of, also consider getting a safe heating source for warming up foods, just in case you have to cook without a stove for some reason. Try, as much as possible, to rely not upon refrigerated foods but upon pantry foods for whatever emergency comes. How long should you plan for? One month at a minimum. If you have the money and space? Six months. Why? Because this isn’t the only thing that can go wrong in the world and you need to prepare for the worst things that can happen. What if a forest fire or flood comes and destroys the goods you’ve stored? You have to evaluate the potential for disasters at your unique location and prepare for whatever may come to you.
Live with Hope in Christ. Prepare, but live in the sunshine. Don’t look for the bad, but the good. Just be ready in case the bad comes. Pray and trust in God. Pray and post a watch. Then, when the bad comes, all those who believe in a good God, a God of hope, will be strengthened to help those who will look for help and hope. Just be ready to share it with them. And pray that you may be found worthy to stand in that day.
Update 3/19/20: Funny how things change—before the crisis, stockpiling was suggested as a good way to prepare for emergencies of this magnitude. Now, when everyone is trying to do it at once, it’s called “hoarding.” Amazing how that works. Listen, grocery stores are high traffic and high risk places. The reason people are bulk purchasing is not necessarily because they believe the food will be gone (if supply chains stop running, however, this could change). It’s more likely (at least it definitely is in our case) because they don’t want to have to go back in there for a long time.